Vendetta UEFA Qualifs 2008

[Vendetta]

Romania pk and +0.5 -132
Romania is the group leader and should be at pk at worst. Group's best offense and unbeaten in last 12 overall qualification matches (10 wins and 2 losses). Solid at home where they won last 5 and 9 of 10 (with 1 draw).

Azerbaijan +2 -116
Very hard to beat at home. Not easy to get there, and even harder to play there. Portugal winless in last 4 games (4 draws).

Armenia +1 and +1.5 -132, OVER 2.5 +118
Serbia not impressive at all but desperate for a win here, so they need to score goals. They miss ALL of their defensive starters for this game. Armenia very strong at home (unbeaten in these qualifs), should be able to score a goal or two.

Israel +1 and +1.5 +106
Israel not out of it yet and that is quite impressive with Croatia and England in their group. Croatia has a rather confortable lead and could be looking ahead a little bit to their clash with England next month. Israel already 3 wins on the road.

Moldova +1.5 -121
Moldova has two wins in last three matches including a win @ Bosnia. Solid at home. Turkey only 1 win in last 7 road games. Turkey plays their hated neighboors Greece in just a few days.

Bosnia +1 and +1.5 +102
Bosnia much better on the road than at home. Greece in bad form and have a huge revenge game vs Turkey on their minds.

Finland pk and +0.5 -101
Finland stil in the race and that's quite surprising. They are second in their group, leading teams like Portugal, Serbia, Belgium. They play very conservative on the road and they will certainly play like that @ Belgium as well. Belgium out of race and don't need a win at all.

 

[Brabben]

Israel +1 and +1.5 +106
Israel not out of it yet and that is quite impressive with Croatia and England in their group. Croatia has a rather confortable lead and could be looking ahead a little bit to their clash with England next month. Israel already 3 wins on the road.

Yes, Croatia has a comfortable lead but not as comfortable as one would think. They are definitely not looking ahead for the England game already since they need 4 more points to be 100% sure to qualify for Euro2008.

They will try to get those points in their games vs Israel home and Macedonia away. Not against England away in the last game of the qualifier. They are fully concentrated on the game vs Israel to get 3p and then only needing a draw vs Macedonia. Waiting for the England away game in the last round to get points is way to risky for Croatia.

Croatia has starters Petric (A) and Niko Kovac (DM) out for this game along with benchplayers Balaban (A) and Budan (A). This means Eduardo and Olic will start the game.

Israel has more troubles with starters not playing. 3 starters out for yellow cards (Awat, Benado and Ziv) plus injured players Idan Tal and Robert Colautti. Yet another 2 players are in doubt as of now, Barak Itzhaki and Salim Tuama. This means 5-6 starters will probably be out for Israel. They will play with a team that has not played much together.

That makes the bet a little risky in my opinion. The odds simply aren't there although it of course could be a winner nevertheless. Stranger things have happened, right . I would like a little higher odds for this bet.

Israel has announced they will play an attacking game since they need 3p to still have a chance to qualify. This will open up a lot of space for Eduardo, Olic, Srna, Kranjcar and Modric. I expekt this game to have quite a few goals.

Croatia still hasn't lost a home qualifier since they started qualifying as an independent nation (1994)

 

[rolltide]

Croatia has a rather confortable lead and could be looking ahead a little bit to their clash with England next month.

Croatia's goal is to make the England trip meaningless which will be achieved if they win against Israel and Macedonia, so I don't see them looking ahead. Also risky betting against a team without a home loss for 7 years but a 1-goal loss will bring you some $$. GL

 

[Brabben]

....Also risky betting against a team without a home loss for 7 years .......

Actually 13 years. They have never had a home loss in qualifications. Not since they entered Euro and World Cup qualifications as an independent nation.

 

[Vendetta]

4.5 Wins
1.0 Loss
1.0 Push